The Science of Bacterial Growth: How to Keep Your Food Safe and Avoid Food Poisoning

Don’t invite diarrhoea to your next dinner party.

TL;DR: The Science of Bacterial Growth in Food

Bacteria can grow quickly and ruin your dinner party:

  • Exponential Growth: Bacteria double rapidly under the right conditions (similar to the chessboard rice parable), turning a single cell into trillions in hours.
  • The Danger Zone: Mesophilic bacteria thrive between 20°C and 45°C. Leaving cooked food out for more than two hours invites rapid contamination.
  • Steaks vs. Burgers: Whole cuts of beef are generally sterile on the inside, making a rare steak safe after searing. Minced meat (burgers) mixes surface bacteria throughout, requiring higher cooking temperatures.
  • Poultry Risks: Chicken carries higher risks of Salmonella and Listeria, which can penetrate the meat, requiring proper cooking (around 74°C).
  • The Rice Trap: Leftover rice can grow Bacillus cereus, producing heat-stable toxins that cause severe food poisoning even after reheating. Always cool and refrigerate rice quickly!

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There is an old Indian parable of a king who wanted to reward the wise man who had invented chess.

The wise old man asked for rice but had an unusual stipulation. He requested the amount of rice equal to a single grain of rice placed on the first square of a chessboard, two on the second, four on the third and so on, the amount of rice doubling until all 64 squares were filled with rice.

The King, who had clearly never dealt with a bank, readily agreed. Though it didn’t take long for him to realise he’d been duped.

By square 16 the total amount of rice on the board was over 65,000 grains of rice. By square 32 over 4 billion grains of rice were needed and by square 64 the King would have had to supply a whopping 18 quintillion grains, more rice than existed in all the world.

What happened next? Was it wise for the wise man to fool a king this way? Different versions of the story have the wise man executed or made a trusted adviser, so I guess we’ll never know.

What we do have though is a good parable of exponential growth. We usually use it to illustrate the power of compound interest, but, for a food scientist, it is rather more reminiscent of bacterial growth.

Especially bacterial growth in food.

Bacteria like our food as much as we do and when they get onto some food their numbers can increase like the rice on the chessboard. For cooks this means that feeding anyone always carries the risk of causing harm, or even death, because of bacterial infection.

Having some knowledge of the basics of bacterial reproduction in food is a good thing. It can help you keep your family and friends safe. It could also bring harm to your enemies I suppose, but I’ve been watching too many murder mysteries lately.

Microscopic view of bacteria cultured in blood, demonstrating exponential proliferation.
Bacterial cultured in blood. Bacterial growth is an exponential phenomenon that has always had important consequences for our food systems (Gianluco, via Wikimedia Commons).

Bacteria Reproduce by Binary Fission

The secret to bacteria’s exponential growth is in the way that they reproduce. Although they are capable of a limited type of sexual reproduction by far the major mode of bacterial reproduction is an asexual process called binary fission.

In binary fission a bacterial cell replicates its DNA, kept in a circular ‘chromosome’ called a nucleoid, and then splits into two distinct daughter cells.

This process can be completed pretty quickly. Some bacteria, like Escherichia coli, can complete a round of binary fission in about 10-20 minutes.

This means a population can potentially double in size every ten minutes.

Diagram showing a bacterial cell undergoing binary fission to split into two daughter cells.
During binary fission a bacterial cell replicates its DNA and splits into two daughter cells (JWSchmidt, via Wikimedia Commons).

Bacterial Populations have Defined Stages of Growth and Decline

If a bacterium, or some bacteria, have gotten themselves onto a suitable substrate, like your lunch, they will enter an initial stage called the lag phase.

You can think of this as a nesting stage where the bacteria are getting used to their new home. They produce macro-molecules needed for growth, repair any damage and get used to the new conditions (temperature, pH, oxygen availability etc).

The length of the lag phase can vary depending on the conditions but eventually the bacteria will move into the log (or exponential) phase. This is where all the action happens.

It’s in the log phase that the bacteria are like the grains of rice on the chessboard. The total number of bacterium doubles with every generation produced by binary fission.

To visualise this, I’ve plotted a growth curve (below) starting with a single bacterium that is undergoing binary fission every 10 minutes. If you wait seven hours (420 minutes) our single bacterium will have around 4 trillion descendants.

Logarithmic growth curve showing a single bacterium multiplying over a seven-hour period.
Bacterial growth rate over time beginning with a single bacterium that undergoes binary fission every ten minutes. After seven hours we have around four trillion bacteria.

Note that this is the exact same geometrical progression as the parable of the chessboard. If you want to express things in chess squares rather than time we are on square 43.

Exponential Growth Can’t Last Forever

Of course, exponential growth cannot last for ever. Eventually a point is reached where the available resources cannot support further population growth.

Things like space, nutrients, water or oxygen can put a limit on further population growth and a buildup of toxic by-products of bacterial metabolism can do the same thing.

When this point is reached the population will enter a stationary phase where the ‘birth’ rate is greatly curtailed and the production of new bacteria becomes roughly equal to the death rate.

The bacterial population will continue like this until resources are depleted and the population enters the death phase. Resources decline, waste products increase and the bacteria begin to die off.

Line graph illustrating the lag, log, stationary, and death phases of bacterial population growth.
The stages of bacterial population growth (Michał Komorniczak, via Wikimedia Commons).

Bacterial Growth and Our Food

Because of exponential bacterial growth, as soon as animal products are produced the clock is ticking.

Animals, including the humans that are slaughtering the other animals, are covered with bacteria. Though modern facilities should be pretty hygienic, it is a pretty safe assumption that there will be some bacterial contamination on the meat after an animal is slaughtered.

The objective is to stop any bacteria that are present from entering log phase growth. Traditionally this meant that meat needed to be immediately eaten, or further bacterial growth prevented by smoking, fermentation, salting or drying.

In the modern world, although we still preserve meats for the flavour, to preserve fresh meat before consumption we use refrigeration.

Bacterial Growth is Temperature Dependent

Refrigeration works because different species of bacteria are comfortable, and grow, at different temperatures.

The ones we are mostly concerned with in food production are called mesophiles and these bacteria reproduce best between 20-45°\degreeC, generally dying at temperatures above 65°\degreeC.

All the bacteria of our microbiome are mesophiles, as are most of the bacteria responsible for food spoilage, food poisoning and disease.

If food is kept at a temperature below the lower limit of the mesophile temperature range any bacteria present will not go into log phase growth or they will do so very, very slowly.

The modern approach is to ensure our logistics networks never allow our animal products to stray into the optimal temperature range for mesophile bacteria before they are cooked and eaten.

That is, we keep them below 4°\degreeC.

Chart showing temperature ranges for mesophilic bacteria relevant to food safety.
Temperature ranges of bacteria. Mostly we care about mesophiles in our food systems, bacteria that are comfortable in a range of around 10-45C.

Cooking, Our Major Defense Against Food Poisoning

While keeping a mesophile below 4°\degreeC stops them from reproducing, subjecting them to temperatures above 65°\degreeC actually kills them and this is where cooking comes in.

Cooking can kill any bacteria that may have contaminated your meat as it made its way to your kitchen.

To help quantify the temperature sensitivity of bacteria, scientists use a decimal reduction time, usually denoted as ‘D’. The D value is the amount of time is needed to reduce bacterial numbers by 90% at a specific temperature.

If we have 1000 individual bacterium and the D60 is 2 minutes, this means that after 2 minutes at 60°\degreeC only 100 bacteria will survive. If it’s kept at 60°\degreeC for four minutes then only ten bacteria will survive and so on.

Each bacterial species, and even strain, has its own D value. The table below sets out some experimentally derived D values for E. coli, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes, bacteria commonly involved in food poisoning (I got the values from this paper).

Table displaying experimentally derived D-values for E. coli, Salmonella, and Listeria at various temperatures.
Decimal reduction time (D) values for some bacteria commonly found in our food (I pulled this table from this paper).

Using these values, we can see that if we want to avoid poisoning our dinner guests, we will need to hold our food at 55°\degreeC for 27 minutes to kill 90% of any E. coli present, 67 minutes for any Salmonella and 81 minutes for L. monocytogenes.

On the other hand, the D70 values for the same bacteria are 2.4, 13 and 18 seconds, meaning, for example, any E. coli will be reduced by 90% after holding the food for 2.4 seconds at 70°\degreeC.

A 90% reduction in bacterial load is pretty good, but it depends how many bacteria were originally present. Ten percent could still be enough bacteria to cause sickness if you had a lot of them to start with.

This is why most health authorities suggest cooking to relatively high temperatures, mostly in the low 70°\degreeC range for most types of meat.

At these temperatures you can burn through several log-fold reductions of bacteria in a few seconds.

You’ll Take My Rare Steak from My Cold Food-Poisoned Hands

Anyone who likes rare steak, myself included, is now saying that there is no way I’m cooking my steak to an internal temperature of more than 70°\degreeC. I’d rather die of food poisoning.

But we don’t have to worry. The inside of a beef steak is generally considered sterile. Bacterial contamination of beef steak occurs on the surface, and the bacteria is unable to penetrate into the muscle.

This means that if you give your steak a good seer at very high temperatures, which you want to do anyway so yet get a nice char from Maillard reactions, then you are usually good.

The official recommendation is still 63°\degreeC but I’m happy to take the risk that a rare steak presents. Pregnant woman, those with chronic illness and children should probably stick with that guideline though.

A steak being seared at high temperatures to kill surface bacteria.
Searing the surface of a steak generally keeps you safe from bacterial contamination on the surface of a steak (sousvideguy, via Wikimedia Commons).

Ground Beef is a Different Risk Altogether

When it comes to ground beef though the scenario changes. Mincing meat drives the surface of the meat into contact with the internal parts of the meat and mixes them all up together.

When this happens all of the meat is now potentially contaminated, inside and out.

This has some ramifications for hamburgers.

A lot of people like a medium rare burger but I’m very wary. Medium-rare is about 54-57°\degreeC and we can see that even for the most thermally sensitive bacteria, E. coli, you’d need to hold your burger at 55°\degreeC for 27 minutes to get a 90% reduction in bacterial numbers.

I’m sure this rarely happens when burgers are being cooked to medium rare.

If you aren’t sure of the provenance of your minced beef, then this starts getting a little risky for my liking. If it’s supermarket mince, forget about it; I’m going to 70°\degreeC.

Chicken is Very Risky Unless Well Cooked

Pork, since we got Trichinella spiralis under control, is pretty much the same story as beef.

Chicken is another matter all together. Salmonella and L. monocytogenes are much greater risks in poultry then they are in beef. And there is some evidence that Salmonella can penetrate chicken flesh and contaminate poultry meat internally as well as on the surface.

So not only do we have more Salmonella and Listeria in poultry meat but searing the surface of the meat, like we do with beef steaks, will not save you if there is internal contamination.

This is why recommendations for poultry are generally around the 74°\degreeC internal temperature range.

This temperature is not so bad for thigh and wings, that have much more connective tissue, but it is also the reason that we often experience dry and tough chicken breast. It is difficult to cook lean chicken breast to the recommended temperature without drying it out.

Leftovers

Once food is cooked we can’t relax because bacteria are fond of cooked food as well.

Bacteria are everywhere so cooked food can quickly become contaminated. Once the temperature of the cooked food enters the comfort zone for mesophile bacteria, we are back to the dynamics of bacterial growth.

What this means is you don’t want to leave food out for more than two hours. Any longer than this and any bacteria present will have passed through the lag stage and be well into exponential growth.

Also, the growth rate for mesophiles is highest around 32°\degreeC, so if it is a hot day reduce that time to an hour.

Bacteria Don’t Have to Still Be There to Cause Harm

If you have some leftovers that are potentially contaminated, you can always reheat it to bacteria killing levels. This is good practice, but in some food stuffs bacterial growth causes a build-up of toxins that can still cause illness, even after re-heating.

The classic example of this is leftover rice. The bacteria Bacillus cereus grows on rice left out for more than a couple of hours and produces the toxins that cause food poisoning.

These toxins include cereulide, that causes vomiting, as well as hemolysin BL, non-hemolytic enterotoxin and cytotoxin K all of which cause diarrhea.

In this case reheating the rice wont help because it may kill bacteria but it wont destroy the toxins.

Microscopic image of Bacillus cereus bacteria commonly found in improperly stored rice.
Bacillus cereus likes rice and will make you vomit and poo yourself if given the chance (Mogana Das Murtey and Patchamuthu Ramasamy, via Wikimedia Commons).

Conclusion

One of the main drawbacks of having worked with bacteria and other nasties in a scientific setting is that you tend to spend the rest of your life thinking about how many bacteria there may be on your food or the surfaces you touch.

That is, it gives you, at best, a mild case of germaphobia, at worst, a full-on latex glove wearing pathology.

Nonetheless, it is important stuff to know if you are in the habit of feeding anyone, including yourself. About 48 million people get food poisoning every year in the USA, and 3,000 of these people die.

Here, I’ve only scratched the surface. Apart from a little bit about rice, I’ve only talked about meat but meat products only account for 29% of the deaths attributed to food poisoning. It is plant products that are responsible for 46% of all food related illnesses.

Apart from meat and vegetables, things like dairy, eggs, egg products and, of course, seafood all bring their own risks with them when we start eating them. Not to mention food-borne parasites.

All this means that I will be doing more posts on food safety, but in the meantime a good understanding of bacterial growth can go a long way towards keeping your dinner guests safe and your reputation untarnished.

Bacterial Growth Science FAQ

Why is a rare steak safe to eat if it’s cooked below typical bacteria-killing temperatures?

Bacterial contamination on beef steaks stays entirely on the exterior surface because bacteria cannot penetrate dense muscle tissue. Searing the outside at high heat kills these surface contaminants, leaving the sterile interior safe to eat rare.

Why are hamburgers riskier than whole-cut steaks?

Mincing meat blends the bacteria from the outer surface throughout the entire patty. This internal contamination means hamburgers must be cooked to higher internal temperatures to ensure food safety compared to whole-cut steaks.

Why can’t you just reheat leftover rice to make it safe?

Bacteria like Bacillus cereus can multiply in rice left at room temperature and produce heat-stable toxins (like cereulide). While reheating will kill the live bacteria, it will not destroy these toxins, which can still cause severe food poisoning.

How long can you safely leave cooked food sitting out at room temperature?

You should never leave perishable cooked food out for more than two hours (or just one hour on a hot day) to prevent bacteria from entering rapid log-phase growth.

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5 responses to “The Science of Bacterial Growth: How to Keep Your Food Safe and Avoid Food Poisoning”

  1. Thanks for the info on rice… Sometimes for a stir-fry I will make rice ahead of time and leave it out until I need it for dinner – not any more 🙂

    1. Yeah I like to make fried rice too and did the same thing, then I learned about B. cereus and was OK I should stop that

      What I do now is still make it ahead of time but after it’s cooked spread it out on a baking tray, cool for 20 minutes and then put it in the fridge till I need it.

      The dry air helps dry out the rice as well which I’ve been told is what you want for fried rice

      1. I do that with some of my pasta dishes (on a towel), like salads where I don’t want to water down the dressing. With my rice I place a towel between the lid and pan for 15 minutes to absorb any liquid. Then I suppose I could lay it out to dry 🙂

      2. Cool I might give that a try as well!

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